Colombia's main crop will soon start arriving at the warehouses of Europe's biggest Traders! To clarify past and future crops in Colombia, we turned to Oscar Fernando Hurtado Ramirez, Research Manager Americas.
Expected crop sizes
During 2020/2021, “rainfalls were higher (about 12%), with very heavy rains during the main flowering months,” says Oscar. These excesses of rain meant that the coffee plants did not have enough "water stress" (water shortage) during flowering. A little water stress during flowering is actually positive and leads to better flowering, he explains. "Coffee trees need a little water stress to encourage good flowering." As a result, the 2020/2021 crop was about 3% smaller than the 2019/2020 crop.
The 2021/2022 crop is expected to be about 7.7% smaller than the 2020/2021 crop, says Oscar. "The main cause of this reduction is the excess of precipitation in 2021 due to the La Niña phenomenon, which led to too much rain during flowering", he says. Bad weather in Cauca, Nariño, Huila (central and north), Eje Cafetero and Valle del Cauca is also expected to cause smaller crop sizes.
Increase in costs
Prices have been extremely high since the beginning of 2021 and the average cost of production has increased by almost 45% over the year. "Labor costs and the cost of inputs were two of the main factors that impacted the overall cost of production for farmers, among others," says Óscar. "We expect inputs to remain expensive next year, with the potential to continue to increase in the first half of 2022." These factors will likely result in continued high Colombian coffee prices this year.
At the same time, we see that these increases can lead to higher incomes for many farmers. Rising cherry and parchment prices have outstripped production cost increases for farmers, leading to higher incomes for many farmers. However, a smaller crop size – around 7.7% on average – can offset the impact of these higher prices for some farmers.
Strong Quality Expectations
The quality is expected to be very good as the wet weather has reduced coffee berry grounds attacks. "We expect to have more mid-quality coffees and less low-quality coffees, due to reduced Coffee DRILL Beetle attacks," says Oscar. In particular, we expect fewer beans known as Pasillas, a smaller, less developed bean often caused by Coffee DRILL Beetle attacks and other factors. It is important to note that very humid weather can adversely affect the quality of the glass.
Asante is currently thinking about the next coffee origin that will be able to provide delicious and high quality coffees to meet the quality standards and expectations of our customers.